In 2018, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was elected with a promise to transform the country into a fully-fledged democracy after its people faced decades of oppressive rule. In 2019, he won a Nobel Peace Prize for peacemaking efforts with neighboring Eritrea. Last fall, however, Ethiopia’s democratic experiment seemingly fell apart. Now, the country is at the center of a humanitarian disaster. If Ethiopia erupts into an all-out civil war, it could trigger a regional conflict throughout the Horn of Africa, the continent’s ethnically diverse eastern peninsula.